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Markov lanac | Marko's chain #2

Žaba skače po vrhovima pravilnog šesterokuta ABCDEF tako da kreće iz vrha A. Prilikom svakog skoka žaba nipošto ne želi niti ostati u istom vrhu niti prizemljiti u nasuprotnom vrhu - zato skače u neki od preostala 4 vrha s vjerojatnostima po 1/4. Kolika je vjerojatnost da će žaba posjetiti i vrh B i vrh F prije nego prvi put dođe u vrh D?
A frog is jumping along the vertices of a regular hexagon ABCDEF, starting in vertex A. The frog never wants to jump in the same vertex twice and it never jumps to the vertex opposite to the vertex it's in. Thus, it jumps into any of the reamining 4 vertices with probability 1/4. What is the probability that the frog visits both the vertex B and the vertex F before it visits the vertex D?